Lessons from Osun State Elections 2026: Governor Adeleke's win

Lots of lessons from Osun 2026 election and Gov. Adeleke's successful re-election

The race to Osun State Okefia Government House concludes with a resounding victory to the incumbent, Governor Adeleke, whose journey to a second term mandate went through significant turbulence, until he decided on a move to Accord Party. This was after significant deliberation regarding prospects of a Tinubu support of his bid, following the disarray in his previous PDP. It was at point rumoured if he would secure an APC ticket, which clearly did not materialise. Governor Adeleke had done his homework with the people of Osun State. There was no question about his performance. The fear of Tinubu is probably the beginning of wisdom and he needed a lot of that. Yes, the Dancing Governor, had moves, lots of it. But overcoming the APC minefields required more than dance steps. He took his chances, trusting that his efforts to serve his people would pay off. The Adeleke's though not knew to politics, understood the APC machinery would not necessarily play fair. Recent elections in neighbouring Ekiti State made that clear.

Defeating the APC machinery was no mean fit. Tinubu by hook or crook has brow-beated most of the governors to submission with his "On-Your-Mandate or nothing-for-you" conditions. The 31 APC-led states sadly have not improved the lot of its citizens. Like the rest of Nigerians, they still suffer from the hopelessness as against the Renewed-Hope, Tinubu allegedly promised. Bola Oyebamiji, the APC governorship candidate at the recently concluded Osun election effused confidence. Perhaps emboldened by the APC governors who flocked the state with their retinue of security agencies and party hangers-on, he believed it was a done deal.

A number of factors have worked in Governor Adeleke's favour. Davido, his nephew, a global sensation and maverick no doubt played a huge role to garner support. Davido with a followership that exceeds the population of Osun state, did not hesitate to challenge patterns signalling derailing of a free and fair election. Osun people have proven to be super-aware and they also stood up to the task.

The focus of this piece is to highlight the lessons learnt from Accord Party and Governor Adeleke's victory.

• the people were election servy and knew what to do.
• The party was proactive and deployed agents across all polling units
• Adelekes have clout and resources to support an enabling environment
• Adeleke as an incumbent performed well in his first term, and  did not need to explain why he deserved to continue the good work
• Davido himself is too strong a personality to ignore
• APC's business as usual methods - police, tear-gas, thuggery, and INEC officials' intimidation fell flat on its face in the midst of citizen preparedness.
• Voters stayed throughout to ensure the correct votes  were recorded
• IREV for the first time worked, but perhaps because Adeleke's team were also capturing each PU results themselves.
• After the debacle of Ekiti elections, Tinubu needed something close to a free and fair election to cover up what APC plans to do in 2027 Presidential and governorship elections. Unfortunately APC did try its usual playbook but the Adeleke's are too hot to handle
• Finally, unfortunately, Osun State is atypical of the rest of Nigeria. Replicating what just happened on 15 August 2026, across 36 States plus FCT in 2027 Presidential elections would be a miracle. BAT is an incumbent president with every reason to go rogue if he wants to. Only two things can stop him selecting himself again. A change of heart, accepting the people do not want him OR the People massively turn out to vote and defend their votes! Whether NDC or OK team can deploy necessary agents across all the polling units in Nigeria is debatable and perhaps unrealistic.  But they ought to try. If 2 or 3 of SW States go to NDC, and all SS, SE, NC, and most of Kano in NW, to NDC, a New Nigeria will be POssible. This requires a people's revolution. As some one mentioned an Opposition joker of Atiku stepping aside will guarantee an OK win.